Week 2 Discussion: Animal Health Agency

Week 2 Discussion: Animal Health Agency
Week 2 Discussion: Animal Health Agency
You, an analyst at the Animal Health Agency (AHA), must make a recommendation whether or not to ban imported pigs…
• You, an analyst at the Animal Health Agency (AHA), must make a
recommendation whether or not to ban imported pigs due to a risk of
importing a disease, porcine hoof blister (PHB), or to require that imported
pigs be tested for the disease.
▫ With no ban, the probability of an outbreak is known with 90% confidence to be
in the range [0.2%, 5%] and the cost of dealing with an outbreak is known to be
$1,000,000 (which will ultimately be paid by the consumer).
▫ With a ban, there will be 0% probability of transmission, but the industry will
experience increased costs that are estimated with 90% confidence to be in the
range of [$1,000, $50,000]. (These costs will also be ultimately paid by the
▫ You could also require a test that reduces the probability of an outbreak to
[0.02%, 0.5%] (90% confidence), but increases costs by $10,000 (plus
$1,000,000 in the event of an outbreak).
• Your agency’s goal is to reduce the overall cost to the consumer
▫ Report
well, i need all calculations with explanations on your approach
i don’t need a written report
i need a clear understanding of what you done
where all numbers come from
and so on
please make a decision tree
You must proofread your paper. But do not strictly rely on your computer’s spell-checker and grammar-checker; failure to do so indicates a lack of effort on your part and you can expect your grade to suffer accordingly. Papers with numerous misspelled words and grammatical mistakes will be penalized. Read over your paper – in silence and then aloud – before handing it in and make corrections as necessary. Often it is advantageous to have a friend proofread your paper for obvious errors. Handwritten corrections are preferable to uncorrected mistakes.
Use a standard 10 to 12 point (10 to 12 characters per inch) typeface. Smaller or compressed type and papers with small margins or single-spacing are hard to read. It is better to let your essay run over the recommended number of pages than to try to compress it into fewer pages.
Likewise, large type, large margins, large indentations, triple-spacing, increased leading (space between lines), increased kerning (space between letters), and any other such attempts at “padding” to increase the length of a paper are unacceptable, wasteful of trees, and will not fool your professor.
The paper must be neatly formatted, double-spaced with a one-inch margin on the top, bottom, and sides of each page. When submitting hard copy, be sure to use white paper and print out using dark ink. If it is hard to read your essay, it will also be hard to follow your argument.

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